BurtonFitzsimmons.com

Keep your umbrella nearby, it’s a 50% chance for showers and storms today.  Rain chances hold high as what’ll soon be Hurricane Alex makes a landfall just to our south Wednesday night.

24 hour rain totals:

5.50″  Harker Heights/Nolanville area
5.20″  Killeen (4 mi south)
2.30″  Leander
2.26″ Blanco
1.90″  Dripping Springs
1.71″  Jonestown (Big Sandy Crk)
1.58″  Cedar Park
1.51″  Mansfield Dam
1.44″ Fredericksburg
1.08″  Lakeway

The cold front that triggered those heavy storms continues to linger nearby, and Futurecast indicates a few more isolated downpours possible this afternoon before they subside.  As dry air is pulled in from the north, we may actually feel slightly less humid through the next few days.

Alex Grows in the Gulf…

Satellite images and reports from hurricane hunter aircraft both confirm Alex is strengthening.  Pressure reports from inside the storm have already dropped to levels one would expect to see from a hurricane but winds haven’t yet met criteria.  As of 6am, sustained winds at 70mph make Alex a very strong tropical storm — that’s only 4mph away from becoming a hurricane.  We suspect an upgrade this morning.

Latest computer models have indeed come to more agreement, indicating a path towards northeast Mexico just south of the mouth of the Rio Grande Valley.  The official forecast points to landfall very late Wednesday night or very early Thursday, depending on how you look at it, as a Category 2 hurricane.

Incredibly heavy rain, buffeting winds, and a 1-3 foot storm surge will bring quite a bit of erosion to the Texas coastline much like Hurricane Dolly did in 2008.  In fact, landfall is expected in nearly the same area.

Local Impact… As the outer bands of Alex swing in from the coast Thursday, it appears we’ll be on the northeastern side of the storm and could receive several waves of rain.  Some heavy downpours may occur.  Winds will be breezy, coming in from the east-northeast.  And, as history shows, tornadoes are possible (though usually weak) with landfalling cyclones.

For now, a HURRICANE WATCH is in effect for coastal areas from Baffin Bay southward to near Tampico, Mexico, while a TROPICAL STORM WATCH runs from Baffin Bay to Port O’Connor.

Stay tuned for more here and on ‘Weather on the Eights.’

Enjoy your Tuesday.

Chief Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons

A rare late June cold front and the first named storm of the hurricane season come together to keep our weather quite active this week, so grab your umbrellas and be sure to track along with News 8.

Today’s overall 30% chance for showers and storms may include heavy downpours especially in the Hill Country where a FLASH FLOOD WATCH continues in through tonight. Futurecast shows the weak cold front nearby, stalled out as far as we’re concerned, close enough through the next two days to initiate rain.  Expect more clouds than sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s in the days ahead.

All the while, the latest official forecast says ALEX will be strengthening into a large hurricane.  He’s just now emerged into the Bay of Campeche (centered about 75 miles west of the city of Campeche as of 5am) as a tropical storm and will likely ramp up to Cat 1 hurricane strength later today on a path to the northwest.

New computer output suggests there may be a bit more northward push of the storm but models still can’t agree, suggesting landfall anywhere from the E-Central Coast of Mexico to the Upper Coast of Texas.  We’ll have to watch and wait.

Landfall could occur as soon as Wednesday night, and if it happens in Mexico, we can kiss our end-of-week rain chances goodbye.  Otherwise, a landfall near or on the Texas coastline will put our area at greater risk for some of the outer rain bands to send in periods of storms.  Winds here could pickup from the northeast at around 20-30mph.

The closer to the Middle Coast Alex ends up at landfall, the better our rain and wind chance.  Once on land, Alex would be expected to diminish relatively quickly, but remnant energy may still continue to provide rain for parts of our area through Saturday at the latest.

If Alex crashes into the Upper Texas Coast, I suspect less immediate impact here at home as we’ll be on more of the drier side of the storm.

Bottom line:  be prepared for rain all week long.  Depending on Alex’s path, rain chances may fluctuate up or down for the end of the week so make your plans accordingly and be sure to check back here and on ‘Weather on the 8s’ for the very latest!

Enjoy your Monday.

Chief Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons