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A band of storms heading towards I-35 may bring us some needed rain today! Keep those rain dances going because after Friday, high pressure’s back and we’ll be sizzling well into the first week of August without a drop in sight.

Earlier today, doppler radar indicated heavy rain around San Angelo, severe cells just west of Dallas (with reports of .60″ in as little as 10 minutes!), and a few isolated storms firing up just west of Waco. A shortwave of energy flowing south in the river of air aloft kicked off the storms last evening and they continue to spread southeast.  Even still, there’s only a 20% chance it’ll actually rain in Austin today.

Fortunately, the northerly winds aloft will try to do the same again Thursday and may be able to usher a final July front into at least North Texas for Friday, with a now slightly better 30% rain chance for Central Texas. Then the dreaded high pressure ridge moves back over the Lone Star State, poised to camp out overhead through all of next week. It’ll block any fronts from making it into the state, simply leaving us with the Gulf as a source for potential drought-busting.

Tropics… And there’s very little going on there right now! By August 1, we will have completed about 15% of the typical Atlantic hurricane season without any activity to report. But don’t let your guard down: the first named storm of the 2004 season developed on August 1 and was followed by 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes. Stay tuned.

Sweaty Statistics… It may be as soon as today, but whenever we hit the next 100 (our 42nd of the year) at Austin-Mabry, 2009 will tie 2000 for fourth place in the greatest number of triple digit days in a single year. The most ever? Sixty-nine in 1925.

Drought Links…
*Drought Monitor
*August Outlook
*Seasonal Drought Outlook
*Climate Prediction Center’s Long-Term Precip Outlook

Enjoy your Wednesday.
Meteorologist
Burton Fitzsimmons

Temps won’t top out as hot as this past weekend but still near 100 for many in the metro areas by afternoon. Thicker cloudcover blocks a bit more of the sizzling summer sun. If we’re lucky another weak front in the vicinity may help those clouds unleash a few raindrops.

Our overall rain chance holds at 20% across Central Texas through Wednesday, though Waco’s specifically looking at a 60% chance according to the National Weather Service. Some heavy rain (radar loop) may complicate travel along the Red River Valley.

Clouds have flown into our area from the north, and that’s the direction some rain may come from, too, as that weak and slow-moving front sinks a bit further south in the next few days. Upper-level winds from the north may make is possible. Meanwhile, surface winds from the south pickup to around 15mph and may gust beyond 22mph — it’s the humid Gulf breeze.

Today’s jet stream movie indicates the high pressure remains in the southwest through midweek, then computer models insist it’ll move more directly over Texas for the weekend. We’ll plan on slightly hotter temps (more low 100s) to kick off August. See the 8-day forecast for details.

Heat Wave Stats… An average temp of 89.5 makes this the hottest July in Austin history, second only to July 1860 (average 89.1). July ’09 high temp average: 102.2. It’s our eighth week of triple digit heat this year. The August outlook calls for more above normal temps and below normal rainfall.

Lake Forecast… Slowly dipping below 638′ AMSL this morning, Lake Travis may drop all the way down to near 625′ by November if we don’t see drought relief rainfall. Let’s hope the strengthening El Nino brings a turnaround in weather this fall.

Keep cool and enjoy your Monday.
Meteorologist
Burton Fitzsimmons