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For the first time in four days, the mercury stopped just short of hitting 100 in Austin yesterday and we’re hoping for the same again today as a brief opportunity for some needed rain graces our stretch of I-35. A few showers can already be seen on radar this morning…

Thicker morning clouds and an abundance of humidity make it feel like a sauna as we get going on this final day of July. It may feel like 105 this afternoon even though some of us only make it to the upper 90s.

An overall 20% rain chance doesn’t sound promising but may end up greeting you on the roads or in, even better, in your backyard. The best odds loom north of the CapCity towards Waco and Dallas today and tomorrow along the path of a slow-moving trough of low pressure and some of the remnant energy from Hurricane Dolly. This rain chance ends tomorrow though we might be seeing another chance next week as a tropical wave sweeps across the Gulf towards Texas.

July Ends Hot, Dry… It’s the final day of the 7th hottest July in Austin history, according to the climate records, with an average high temp of 99 degrees. Having received only .38″ of rain through midnight, a deficit of 1.59″ stands for the month with an annual deficit of 8.81″. With only 10.53″ so far this year, it’s the 11th driest first seven months of any year at Camp Mabry since 1856. Basically since the end of last year’s wet spell, it’s been the 8th driest September to July period with a total of 17.56″.

Hot August Ahead… The next eight days are typically the hottest of the year, according to the last 30 year averages. As strong high pressure returns to the Plains this weekend, and we’re calling for resulting low 100s. Look for the official August outlook from the Climate Prediction Center here later today.

Keep cool and enjoy your Thursday.

Meteorologist
Burton Fitzsimmons

A week after she made landfall as a category two storm, the remnant vestiges of what was once Hurricane Dolly (reincarnate?) return to the area with possible showers. Though the overall chance is low, it may bring relief by a few degrees away from the hundreds and, for some, a few final drops in the rain gauge for July.

As predicted, we made it up to 102 at Camp Mabry Tuesday though it felt even hotter for some. A heat index of 103 was reported in San Marcos and 104 felt in Temple from 4-5pm.

Futurecast offers a glimmer of relief as those remnants of Dolly — now a broad trough of low pressure extending from near San Angelo to St. Louis — swing very slowly eastward across I-35 (radar loop.) Waco stands a better 20% rain chance today, then a better 20% rain chance comes areawide tomorrow and Friday. Accumulations aren’t likely to be much more than a quarter of an inch.

High pressure over the Rockies nudges a bit more towards Texas this weekend, continuing our hot spell right into the first days of August. Climate records show the 30 year average peak of summer heat hits Austin August 6-7. No big change from the status quo, next week’s weather looks dismally dry and ultra hot. Our greatest hope for change comes via the tropics.

Topical Update… The few tropical waves we see in the Western Atlantic show no sign of imminent organization, though there’s something worth watching in the Eastern Atlantic. Fresh off the west coast of Africa, a new disturbance is now over the warm open waters and has a good chance of organizing even more into our next true depression. Then, if it achieves tropical storm status, it’ll be given the name Edouard. We’ll be watching!

Dolly Damage… As feared, Dolly’s landfall last week did an incredible amount of erosion to the lower Texas coast and South Padre Island. Take a look at this before and after comparison from NASA’s polar orbiting Aqua satellite. Not only do we see inland flooding across the Valley (in blue) we also see several points where water now replaces the beach between the barrier island and the coast.

Perseid Meteors…
The earth will soon pass through the debris stream of Comet Swift-Tuttle, producing dozens to hundreds of meteors per hour in the annual Perseid meteor shower. Mark your calendars for the peak near August 12.

…Heat Stats Since May 19…
Mabry:
37 triple-digit days
Highest: 105 (July 14)
ABIA:
11 triple-digit days
Highest: 102 (July 28)
Waco:
10 triple-digit days
Highest: 104 (July 28)

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Meteorologist
Burton Fitzsimmons