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A rather benign cold front arrived overnight, returning north winds across Texas. Daytime highs will end up just a bit cooler than yesterday as a result, in the low to mid 60s, which is right at the average for this time of year. Sun turns to rain this weekend…

Expect mainly sunny skies through the day, giving way to a gradual increase in clouds again overnight. At their lowest, sunrise temps Friday morning will drop into the 40s for the Hill Country and near 50 in town. Southeast winds return as soon as tomorrow, aiding in a warm-up to about 70 degrees and ushering in some moisture ahead of our next disturbance.

Enhanced satellite images show an abundant moisture stream flowing into western Mexico in advance of a well-defined, large disturbance swirling just off the west coast of Baja. Cut-off from the main polar jet stream at this point, the disturbance will just slowly bobble to the northeast through tomorrow. A deepening trough of low pressure is forecast to dip the jet stream into the southwest by Saturday, effectively pulling this storm into the upper-air flow. Heavy rains will result, with snows possible in higher elevations. As the storm accelerates into the Central Plains, a dangerously widespread area of sleet and ice becomes possible over the weekend.

We’ll be on the southern extend of this upper-air energy, so spotty off-and-on showers will be more likely in our area this weekend. Our forecast includes a 30% chance both Saturday and Sunday. Although skies will be mostly cloudy, it won’t rain th entire time, we don’t think. Fortunately, temps will be nowhere near as cold as last weekend!

The cold front associated with this system will drop our high temps back into the 60s by Monday. See today’s 8-day forecast for the details.

Tropical Season Wraps… As reported here yesterday, the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends this Friday. A season originally predicted to be well above-average turned out nearly normal, thanks to an El Nino in the Pacific ocean and an abundance of Saharan dust moving into the air over the Atlantic, we believe. Fourteen named storms developed (out of the 17 predicted,) with six hurricanes (right at the 100 year average, and one below the forecast,) and two major hurricanes (again, right at the 100 year average, and one below the forecast.)

In some regards, the season was notable. Eight storms developed in September, tying the record. Hurricane Dean and Felix both made landfall as cat five storms, the first time that’s ever happened in the same season. Closer to home, a weak Tropical Storm Erin made landfall on the Texas coast on August 16, killing two people in a warehouse collapse. In addition, Hurricane Humberto formed right off the upper coast of Texas at the peak of the season on September 12, intensifying faster than any other tropical cyclone in recoded history — within 18 hours of landfall.

Enjoy your Thursday.

Meteorologist
Burton Fitzsimmons

We have weather fit for feasting this Thanksgiving Day 2007, compliments of yesterday’s arctic arrival. For many, it feels just right for this time of year. The cold lingers for several more days, with an added bonus: some needed rainfall. Unfortunately, it’s going to make the holiday weekend look quite ugly and, at times, slippery.

That chilly breeze from the north continues to howl in at nearly 25 to 30mph for many of us to start the holiday, making it feel like the 20s & 30s! Here’s a look at this morning’s lowest temps:

30 Burnet
32 Fredericksburg
33 Bertram
34 Cedar Park
34 Dripping Springs
34 Leander
35 Lakeway
36 Elgin
36 Oak Hill

Layer on the clothing before you head outdoors today, otherwise it’ll feel like 30s through much of the afternoon to your bare skin. Nothing like the snow flurries and colder teens in northwest Texas right now (radar loop.) Our mostly cloudy skies won’t offer much precip, at least not yet…

Temps will drop into the upper 20s tonight for parts of the Hill Country, with widespread 30s across the I-35 corridor. There may be a few sprinkles across the area late or even a bit of sleet as close as the Hill Country overnight…a slim 20% chance. We’ll start Friday rather frigid then warm into the mid 50s by afternoon. While some get light snow showers in the Panhandle and further west, we’ll look for a chilly rain to develop as our next disturbance tracks towards Texas from northern Mexico after sunset Friday.

Expect wet weather both Saturday and Sunday, with rain chances now in the “likely” category. Some accumulations may exceed an inch — a welcome sight in light of our recent dry spell. As always, slippery roads will result. And with a bit of a breeze, those daytime 40s Saturday will be nasty in the rain. Plan indoor activities and avoid the elements if you want to stay comfy!

This disturbance goes east of us Monday, ending the rain and returnig some sunshine to Central Texas early next week. Another disturbance tracks towards Texas Thursday or Friday with clouds and potential for more showers. Stay with us for updates.

Turkey Travel… Even with a large storm system rolling through the middle of the country yesterday, flight delays and cancellations were few and far between according to most reports. Today’s flight delays look to be limited to the southeast and northeast, where the arctic air arrives today. Check real-time delays here at the FAA’s website.

Return Travel… Roadways and airways will likely be more congested Sunday than any other day this year, and the winter-like weather in Texas may play a part for return trips. Plan on slick roadways requiring more time for road travel. Check back with us for an update before you leave.

Keep warm and have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Meteorologist
Burton Fitzsimmons