BurtonFitzsimmons.com

Another complex of storms fired up the I-35 corridor overnight, delivering Doppler estimates of three to four more inches of rain in Williamson county and prompting some evacuations. Since daybreak, two more weather systems have collided just west of I-35 and continues to bring heavy rains at this hour. Needless to say, the threat of more flooding continues…

24 hour rain totals as of 10am:

Lake LBJ at 1431 3.58″
Lake LBJ at 2900 Bridge 3.16″
Jollyville 1.97″
Tow 1.94″
Kingsland 1.94″
Cedar Park 1.60″
Burnet 1.57″
Big Sandy@Elgin 1.53″
Barton Crk@Oak HIll 1.15″

A scenario surprisingly similar to Tuesday night’s 20-inch rain seemed to be unfolding earlier this morning as a broken line of storms swept into the Hill Country from the northwest while another cluster of storms moved in from the south, all intersecting in the same areas hit hard earlier this week: the eastern hills! Those heavy rain totals listed above for Lake LBJ come just miles east of Marble Falls, where some residents continue to be flooded out of their homes.

That persistent upper-level low pressure center’s now near Abilene and can be seen “swirling” on radar imagery. Expect the heating of the day to keep some stormy weather along its path. Futurecast suggests we could see another similar repeat performance of storms blossoming over I-35 tonight and tomorrow. Then, we finally see some change…

For the first time this week, almost all of our computer models indicate the high pressure cells that have been blocking this pesky low pressure cell for nearly a week will begin to slowly shift this weekend, budging that disturbance westward just a bit. If that happens, we may end up in a much drier scenario at tims this weekend.

Our confidence in this chance for change continues to rise as more and more computer models provide this solution. It’s a welcome sight to see, no doubt, but we again will err on the side of caution in that more flooding rains are possible. Check back for updates on the 8-day forecast and on ‘Weather on the Eights’ as we tweak the forecast.

Lake Levels… Today’s additional rains in the Hill Country will no doubt complicate the flooding situation along many of our waterways, including the Highland Lakes. Lake Travis continues a slow rise above 693′ this morning. At Lake Buchanan, a second floodgate may be opened to allow additional floodwaters downstream. Those who live at Lake Travis or along any area waterway should pay very close attention to these changes as water levels could quickly rise without much notice. Have a plan of action ready to take you and your family to safe, high ground.

Keep dry and enjoy your Thursday.

Meteorologist
Burton Fitzsimmons

Our wet spring just doesn’t seem to want to go away. Rain chances hold high until a pesky area of low pressure moves away from Texas, which might not happen until early next week! Fortunately, it hasn’t all come at once. More heavy downpours threaten to bring additional flash flooding, our number one storm killer. Please be be extra cautious, especially when driving. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH continues…

Rain continued overnight primarily in the Hill Country then started to become scattered by 10am, with .28″ since midnight in Austin. Here’s a look at 24 hour rain totals:

Pecan Bayou 4.17″
Barton Crk@Oak Hill 3.34″
Lk Austin@Quinlan Park 3.01″
Lk Austin@Cortana Shores 2.63″
Marble Falls 2.10″
Mansfield Dam 2.03″
Cedar Creek 1.80″
Spicewood 1.68″

Keep your umbrellas nearby as a 70% chance for more rain looms on the horizon.

As we turn from spring to summer, that fast-moving current of air aloft we call the jet stream transitions northward again, keeping the cold air near the poles and allowing us to warm up. It also takes fast-moving weather patterns and the general “disturbance” or storm track north. Now, high pressure cells have built over the Rockies and East Coast, effectively blocking the weather across the Southern Plains from moving much at all. It’s a classic setup for flash flooding…

The upper-level low will move very little in the next few days, offering these higher-than-average rain chances especially during the heat of each afternoon. By the weekend, high pressure begins to nudge this low pressure cell a bit, but some computer models insist it will continue to hold its own until early next week.

As these subtle shifts occur, the 8-day forecast offers a gradual decrease in the rain chance and slightly higher temps through early next week. My confidence in how this weather scenario will play out isn’t too high, however, so be sure to check back often for updates with the very latest here and on ‘Weather on the Eights.’

Lightning Awareness Week…
Expect to hear the boom of thunder again today, meaning that lightning isn’t that far off. The “flash-to-bang” rule tells us how to measure that distance. Count the number of seconds from when you see the lightning flash until when you hear the thunder’s boom. Every five seconds accounts for a single mile. So, for example, if it takes 15 seconds to hear that bang you’re within three miles of the storm and should seek shelter immediately in sturdy building. Click here for more.

Keep dry and enjoy your Tuesday.

Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons