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Chilly showers of rain and some sleet made it through the area this morning.  It’s going to be cool all day, with temps only making it up to near 50, but we’re crossing our fingers for a few afternoon sun breaks. As a disturbance crosses the Plains, we expect more rain to develop and move into the I-35 corridor tonight.

Even though it’s cloudy again now, skies were clear early in the night and temps dropped to a light freeze in some of our communities:

27 Temple
28 Spicewood
29 Big Sandy@Jonestown
30 Barton Crk@Oak Hill
30 Driftwood
30 Rosanky
32 Fredericksburg

Light snow has been reported this morning in Amarillo and Lubbock with a frozen mix in Abilene, and has now made it to Dallas. Our “sprinkles” seen on the doppler radar this morning amounted to very little in the rain gauges thanks to a dry layer of air between the ground and those clouds — a lot of the rain simply evaporates before it gets close to the surface. Light sleet, meanwhile, did in fact make it to neighborhoods from Waco to Killeen between 8-10am but has since shifted east of I-35.

Numerous showers are expected to develop tonight and spread across the area as an upper-level disturbance moves through the Plains. A few rumbles of thunder may be detected, too, with the threat of some minimal hail thanks to temps below freezing just a few thousand feet in the air.  Our overall rain chance increases to 50% from midnight through sunrise Thursday. Showers will go east, tapering in our area by midday. We think skies will clear again Thursday afternoon, offering highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Weekend Update… Thankfully, our initial thoughts of a solid freeze Sunday through Tuesday have diminished. As we continue getting closer to the weekend, the computer models that simulate our future weather have indeed begun to “agree” on how cold we’ll actually get. Although I’m still not much more than 70% confident in their solutions, almost all data now points to our area being on the very tail end of the most frigid air, with teens still expected in many Texas towns but not likely in Austin. So here’s what I think…

After a dry, somewhat sunny Friday in the mild low 60s, our second Polar front of the week arrives in Central Texas. Saturday’s temps will probably start near freezing for most then only rise to the 40s during the day in Austin, with 30s in areas further north. If the front slows down, temps may tumble down during the day. In either case, winds are expected to gust between 20 and 30mph, producing windchills in the 20s all day for the Austin area with teens for Waco and Killeen neighborhoods.

Cold Superbowl Sunday… Sunday starts with a freeze for most then we think we’ll rebound into the upper 40s and low 50s as ample sun shines across the area. A final reinforcing shot of some modified arctic air may arrive late Sunday, keeping us in an areawide freeze Monday morning.

We’ll continue to tweak the forecast as more data becomes available in the weather center. Be sure to check back often for updates on the 8-day forecast and on ‘Weather on the Eights.’

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Meteorologist
Burton Fitzsimmons

We picked up just a few sprinkles of rain overnight, with drizzle and fog making for slick travel here this morning. The first surge of polar air for the week arrives today, ushering a generous breeze from the north at times and some chilly weather into tomorrow. Then the rain returns…

Some spotty drizzle and very light rain amounted to little in the rain gauges since midnight:

Elgin .03″
Lockhart .02″
San Marcos .02″
Smithville .02″
Austin Bergstrom .01″

Most of the showers developed along and east of I-35 after midnight and have since spread east into Houston (radar loop.) Meanwhile, breaks in the clouds will allow some rays of sunshine through the skies out west and, eventually, throughout the rest of Central Texas this afternoon. If this happens as predicted, afternoon temps may venture as high as the upper 50s. Where the clouds stay thick, some may only get into the low 50s today.

Futurecast indicates more clouds developing tonight from the west as colder air eases in from the north. Some computer models now indicate this first round of chill will be even colder than we believed just 24 hours ago. We expect Austin to stay above freezing tonight while areas north could fall to near 30 degrees.

A cloudy and chilly Wednesday awaits tomorrow with highs only in the 40s. As a large disturbance from the west coast moves across the southwest towards the Panhandle, rain will spread into our area late Wednesday into Thursday and may include some thunderstorms. Our overall rain chance peaks at 50% early Thursday.

Wintry Mix… At the same time, our second surge from the poles will be sweeping colder air into Texas. We expect snow as that disturbance crosses the Panhandle while an icy mix of sleet, snow, and possible freezing rain comes to the I-20 corridor. It’s possible the northern Hill Country and residents near Waco could get some of this inclement weather by Thursday, so prepare for possible travel delays northbound later this week.

Arctic Surge… If all comes together as it appears right now, this Thursday front will put us in the 50s for Friday then 30s and 40s for Saturday. At some point late Saturday or early Superbowl Sunday, we expect the coldest round of all to enter the area. Temps will dive and may get into the upper 20s for many on Sunday morning, then struggle to get much above freezing that afternoon.

The coldest will most likely be felt between Sunday and Tuesday. Fortunately, we have no precip in the forecast during that time frame and, in fact, expect plenty of sunshine to break out early next week. It’ll be chilly, but hopefully not icy. Cross your fingers!

Plan ahead… Homeowners will want to wrap exterior pipes and make sure all insulation and window seals are in working order. All of us should check heaters for proper function. Stock up with as much as four day’s worth of food and supplies (including medicines) for everyone in the household. Click here for more tips.

Enjoy your Tuesday.

Meteorologist
Burton Fitzsimmons