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It really shouldn’t have come as too much of a shock to anyone that we made it up to 104 at Camp Mabry Thursday, tying the record from 1988. It’s been an incredibly hot month! And, unless we see some major change in the next few days, we’ll likely remember this as the hottest and one of the driest months of August in Austin history.

Yesterday’s heat indices were searing:

110 Downtown Austin
110 Lago Vista
108 Taylor
106 Killeen
105 ABIA
105 Bastrop
105 Camp Mabry
105 Fort Hood
105 Huston Tillotson
105 Round Rock
105 San Marcos
105 Temple

That stubborn upper-air high pressure holds its ground here and points east, with near triple digits continuing into the weekend. Seabreeze showers and their attendant clouds will try to make it up to our area each afternoon the next three days, with the better chance of actual rain coming late in the weekend from one of these spotty showers. But don’t count on it: the chance is only 20% percent. Sunday looks a tad bit more hopeful.

Our average temperature of 88.8 makes this the hottest August on record at Camp Mabry… yikes! With only a trace having been observed at Camp Mabry thus far, we’re tied for fourth driest according to those records that date back to the late 1800s. According to the Austin-Bergstrom climate records, our 0.03″ so far this month puts us in second place for the driest August since the 1940s.

Cross your fingers that the jet stream will buckle a bit, sending a weak cold front down to Texas early next week — one of the first big pattern shifts in 30 days or so. Next Tuesday looks to hold the best chance for rain we’ve seen in awhile, at least as it appears today, as that front stalls nearby. I don’t expect much of a north breeze but do think extra cloudcover could help reduce the heat. Hopefully this is more than just a tease…

Tropical Update… We’ll soon be discussing Tropical Storm Ernesto, but right now it’s Tropical Depression Five we see growing out in the Southeast Caribbean (enhanced satellite.) As of 6am, Ernesto contains sustained winds of 35mph and is centered nearly 350 miles SSE of San Juan, Puerto Rico (radar loop.)

The latest forecast carries Tropical Storm Ernesto westward across the Caribbean to near Jamaica by Sunday then towards the Yucatan channel early next week as a category one hurricane. Strong southwest winds aloft will be the nemesis of Ernesto, so we’ll see how much strength he gains along the way. Needless to say, folks living along the Gulf need to keep a close eye on this storm as the forecast holds much uncertainty right now. Given the course and direction, the earliest Ernesto could affect the Texas coast is by Thursday.

Debby’s Done… Tropical Storm Debby won’t be alive much longer. The enhanced satellite loop shows less organization in the storm this morning.

Goodbye, Ileana… Once a major category three earlier in the week, Hurricane Ileana is but a weak category one this morning. Sustained winds of 85mph will quicly decrease as the storm moves into cooler waters further west, now more than 450 miles WSW off the Baja of California.

Enjoy your Friday and have a super weekend.

Meteorologist
Burton Fitzsimmons

We were almost in luck! Strong storms delivered heavy rains and wind damage across East Texas Tuesday but, just as they appeared to be heading this direction (24 hour radar loop,) the sun set and all bets were off. So far this morning, it’s been somewhat cloudy and incessantly warm. We’ll watch for a few more spotty showers to pop up this way by afternoon, likely the 28th triple digit day of the year.

On Futurecast, we find a stalled out and deceptive “cold” front in North Texas — Dallas hit a high of 103 yesterday in spite. More than anything else today, it could serve as a focal point for storm development. Central Texas rain chances appear best by 3pm, near the hottest part of the day, with an overall rain probability of 20%. It’s been 27 days since Camp Mabry reported more than a trace.

We continue to be taunted by rain in other parts of the state and repeatedly teased by most weather simulation models that’ve frequently proven unreliable this summer. The high pressure cell over the south had shown signs of weakening as it centered closer to Arizona these last few days, but we’re still very much under its influence. Jet stream-level winds continue flowing from their seasonal easterly direction and may carry a swirl of low pressure from Florida towards South Texas by the weekend. We’ve seen this happen a handfull of times so far this summer with the same result: no rain for our area. But don’t lose hope for a possible, brief cameo. Even with highs likely up to near 100 the next few afternoons, the rain chance at 20% continues through the weekend.

Summer Perspective… You’re not imaging things, this has indeed been a very hot summer. Camp Mabry records show it as one of the hottest, with an average temperature from June 1st through August 20 of 85.9 degrees — the fourth hottest summer since 1854. August alone contributes the most with a current average high temp of 101.1 so far this month. The record: 1923, when the average high was 102.9 degrees.

Tropical Update… Tropical Storm Debby, the fourth named storm of the season, formed late Tuesday just off the west coast of Africa (enhanced satellite loop.) As of 8am, sustained winds were at 45mph with gusts up to 60mph as the storm moved WNW at 16mph. Debby may slowly strengthen into a weak hurricane but shows no sign of impacting land within the next five days.

In the Eastern Pacific this morning, Tropical Depression Hector dissapears while strong category three Hurricane Ileana swirls more rain towards the West Coast of Mexico and near the Baja (latest radar image.) Ileana, with sustained winds of 115mph and gusts up to 140mph as of 8am, will move west away from land and likely fade away in a few days.

Enjoy your Wednesday.