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Last night’s cold front arrived with a big batch of storms, followed by notably cooler air. After a lull in the rain, more showers moved into the Hill Country and a few have spread to I-35. Give yourself extra travel time & don’t forget the umbrella!

Storm reports from NOAA:
50 mph wind gust & funnel cloud at Wells Branch
Nickel-size hail & 50-60mph wind gusts 4SSE Jollyville
Quarter-size and half dollar-size hail 2E Fredericksburg

Top totals as of 10am from the LCRA Hydromet:
4.16″  Llano
2.69″  Buchanan Dam

So far, very little lightning has been detected — storms may be few and far between during the day.  The rain chance continues at 80% then drops to 70% tonight.  Because isolated downpours could cause rapid rises in water levels, a FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for Austin and counties west of I-35 until 4pm.  Avoid driving through water when it flows over roads — Turn Around, Don’t Drown.

Here’s what our in-hour computer model predicts:

NOAA’s latest 5 day rain outlook calls for additional 2 to 4″ totals in our region, with heavier accumulations south.

Another round of storms may travel towards I-35 from the west late tonight but there’s no guarantee it’ll hold together.  We’ll take a brief break in the rain during the day Wednesday & Thursday — a lower 20% chance.  The another upper-level disturbance will move our way from the Pacific by Thursday night, offering a secondary chance of storms to close out the week.  Odds look as good as 50% Friday as this system swings overhead, then showers will move east just in time for Mother’s Day weekend.  Check out the YNN 8 Day Forecast for full details.

Temps at daybreak…

Enjoy your Tuesday.
Chief Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons

May began just like April ended:  hot and dry.  Actually, a few showers crept into some of our communities yesterday but only resulted in .01″ at Rosanky and a trace at Austin-Mabry.  And light sprinkles were again reported around daybreak but with only a trace of rain at the Austin Airport.  Clouds appear to be breaking early…

It’s very steamy, and temps are already on the rise:

We’ll near 80 by lunch then peak in the low 90s around 4pm.  Southeast winds, which gust up to 25 mph yesterday, will gust in a similar range of 15 – 25 mph today.  Good news for travelers, Futurecast shows less rain potential across the state and we can thank a bit of a high pressure ridge building in from the west.  It’s bittersweet:  under high pressure, heat typical of summer will put temps closer to 94 or 95 on a few thermometers through the end of the week.  Today’s record is 95 from 1964.

The West Texas dryline will play less of a role in kicking off rain today.  In fact, we’ll wait for another piece of upper-level energy from the Pacific to cross Mexico Thursday then move across Texas by late Friday.  The extra uplift it adds to the atmosphere could make for some decent showers and storms, even if they’re not for everyone, and will add on to the drought relief.  For now, our rain chance sits at 20% Friday through Saturday morning.

NOAA’s latest 5 day rain outlook indicates heavier totals west of I-35.

A change in the pattern aloft will dip the jet stream/storm track further south next week, offering a possible cold front for Texas by Wednesday.  For now, it’s a 30% rain chance by the middle of the week.  Stay tuned as we track this development on the YNN 8 Day Forecast.

Tuesday recap…

April 2012 report…  Late yesterday, NOAA issued the final report on last month’s weather, confirming it was Austin’s 6th warmest & 6th driest April.  The month ended with an average high temps of 85.2, and only 0.22″ of rain at Austin-Mabry, 1.87″ below normal.  In spite of a 4.34″ year-to-date surplus, we continue with a 12″ rain deficit since the drought began in Fall of 2010.

Meteors this weekend…  Twice each year along our orbit around the sun, planet earth passes through debris from Comet Halley (it last came through the inner solar system in 1986 and is now near the orbit of Uranus.)  Small fragments left over by the comet will enter our atmosphere at nearly 150,000mph, creating the annual eta Aquarid meteor shower.  At the peak Saturday night to Sunday morning, astronomers predict 10-20 meteors per hour but they’ll be competing with the largest full moon of the year, so it may be tough to see as many ”shooting stars” as we’d like.

DROUGHT UPDATE…

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Enjoy your Wednesday.
Chief Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons